The morning I sat down to write this, the UAE announced it was leaving OPEC - and that single headline carries more weight than it might appear at first glance. 

Here's why it matters to you, to me, and to anyone who has winced at the pump lately. 

OPEC, the UAE, and Your Gas Bill 

OPEC's core function is supply management - less supply, higher prices. The UAE's departure introduces a new variable into that equation, and how global supply responds will be worth watching closely. Whether that ultimately translates to relief at the pump remains to be seen, but it is a development that energy markets are paying close attention to. 

What is already clear is that the Strait of Hormuz closure has had a measurable impact. It has meaningfully contributed to a 21.2% surge in gasoline prices in March alone — the largest single-month increase on record, according to Dr. Sam Chandan. That number is significant by any measure. 

Uncertainty Is the Only Certainty Right Now 

Policy developments have been coming at a rapid pace, and markets have had to adapt accordingly. Whether that adaptation reflects genuine resilience or a degree of collective numbness to the noise is an open question, but either way, the economy continues to move forward. 

On the Federal Reserve front, Dr. Chandan puts the probability of the Fed holding rates flat for the remainder of the year at 77.5%. That said, I had an interesting conversation recently with Mishra Shruti at Bank of America, who suggested there remains a real possibility of two rate cuts in September and October, dependent on whether the geopolitical situation stabilizes and the Fed chair transition is resolved. 

The Fed Chair Transition 

Jerome Powell is expected to remain in his role until a successor is confirmed by the Senate. The Banking Committee's nomination process is currently paused, leaving the timeline open-ended. 

In the meantime, the Fed faces a genuinely complex balancing act: core inflation sits around 3.3% - above the 2% target - while job growth is showing signs of slowing. Those two data points pull in different directions, and how the Fed navigates that tension, whoever is ultimately in the chair, will be one of the more consequential stories of the year. 

The Jobs Picture 

Here is perhaps the most sobering data point in the current landscape: 2025 delivered the weakest jobs year we have seen outside of a declared recession, according to Dr. Chandan. 

Debates around the causes, whether structural, cyclical, or technology-driven, are ongoing. On the AI front specifically, I don't believe displacement is a dominant factor in the macro numbers just yet. But anecdotally, the feedback from people actively job searching right now is consistent: it is a difficult market. The data and the lived experience appear to be pointing in the same direction. 

The Bottom Line 

There are a lot of moving parts right now - geopolitical, monetary, and legislative, all converging simultaneously. Some signals are encouraging. Others warrant caution. Most simply call for close attention. 

What remains constant is this: informed, clear-eyed decision making is the most valuable tool available when the landscape keeps shifting. Stay close to the numbers. Stay close to the people who understand them. 

The views expressed are those of the Managing Director and reflect ongoing market observations and conversations within our industry.