As of the end of March, the United States is engaged in an active military conflict with Iran. I genuinely hope — though I am not holding my breath — that the situation has found some resolution by the time this reaches your hands. With that context in mind, here is where things stand. 

What Consumers Are Already Feeling 

Even before any formal economic data catches up, consumers are beginning to feel the early effects of a geopolitically unsettled environment. Energy costs are climbing. Expectations around growth are being quietly revised downward. Inflation, which had only recently begun to feel manageable, is back as a front-of-mind concern. And for those seeking capital — whether for a business expansion, a development project, or an acquisition — the early signals suggest that lending conditions may tighten in the months ahead. 

None of this is surprising in isolation. Military conflict, particularly one involving a region as strategically critical as the Middle East, has historically sent ripple effects through energy markets, supply chains, and investor confidence. The Strait of Hormuz alone — a chokepoint through which a significant portion of the world's oil supply travels — is enough to move markets when its stability is in question. Add broader geopolitical uncertainty on top of that, and the consumer sentiment numbers write themselves. 

 And Yet — Everyone Seems to Be Busy 

Here is where it gets interesting. 

As of the end of March, I have spoken with brokers, lenders, civil engineers, and general contractors across our market. The consistent message? They are extremely busy. Deals are moving. Projects are in motion. The phones are ringing. 

This is a striking juxtaposition. On one side, you have a drumbeat of negative macroeconomic sentiment — conflict, inflation fears, tightening credit, slower growth projections. On the other, you have boots-on-the-ground professionals who are, by their own accounts, as active as they have been in some time. 

So what explains the disconnect? 

Two Theories Worth Considering 

I will offer my two cents, for whatever they are worth. 

Theory One: War is inflationary, and real estate is a proven hedge against inflation. 

This is not a new idea — it is practically a chapter in the textbook. When inflation rises or is anticipated to rise, tangible assets become more attractive. Real estate, with its intrinsic value and income-generating potential, historically holds up well — and often appreciates — in inflationary environments. Investors who understand this dynamic don't wait for the dust to settle. They move while others hesitate. What looks like counterintuitive behavior is actually a rational, historically informed response to the conditions at hand. 

Theory Two: The market has simply learned to press on. 

After several years of navigating pandemic disruptions, interest rate volatility, supply chain dysfunction, and near-constant policy uncertainty, it is possible that developers, investors, and industry professionals have collectively recalibrated their threshold for what constitutes a reason to pause. The news cycle is loud. The fundamentals — population growth, housing demand, infrastructure needs — remain intact. For many in this industry, the calculus is straightforward: the work still needs to get done. 

The truth, as it often does, probably lives somewhere in the combination of both. 

What to Watch 

The gap between sentiment and activity is worth monitoring closely in the months ahead. If the conflict de-escalates and energy prices stabilize, the current momentum could continue to build on solid footing. If conditions worsen — sustained energy price increases, further capital tightening, or a prolonged conflict — the busy season some are experiencing now may face headwinds that are harder to outrun. 

Real estate has always rewarded those who stay informed, stay disciplined, and stay engaged — regardless of what the headlines are saying on any given morning. That remains as true today as it ever has. 

The views expressed are those of the Managing Director and reflect market observations and conversations current as of late March 2026. Conditions may have evolved by the time of publication.